There is one Taliban we all know. There is another Taliban we have heard of but know little. It is Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
It came into being in 2007 in response to Pakistan siding with the Americans to carry out brutal operations against the Taliban rebels who had crossed the border during the US invasion of Afghanistan.
This ignited the tribal, fraternal Pashtun bond across the two sides of border. Some 40 disparate groups in the Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), now part of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, formed TTP and unleashed terrorist attacks in its defence which has continued to this day.
Pakistan believes that Taliban in Afghanistan support TTP with funds and arms which has led to over 24,000 Pakistani civilians and 9,000 of its security personnels dead in last two decades. Economically, it has bled Pakistan over $126 billion in this unwinnable war.
Why these two Islamic nations, with allegiance to Deoband seminary, are at each other’s throat for this long? Is this a peculiarity with the Taliban’s rule alone or has this been a pattern ever since Pakistan came into being in 1947?
Genesis of Bad Blood
History tells us that bad blood between the two has run constantly since Pakistan’s statehood. The Britishers had drawn up Durand Line to mark the area of influence between themselves and Afghanistan in 1893. Pakistan took it as its de facto border on independence which was greatly resented by Afghanistan who asserted this one-page agreement was a temporary one which indeed it was.
Afghanistan saw this artificial Durand Line as fragmentation of Pashtuns on either side of the border. They were for “Pashtunistan”, combining not just the two but also part of Balochistan. They even voted against Pakistan’s admission into the United Nations in 1947. To this day, Afghanistan consider the Durand Line as a historical wound of injustice.
Pakistan would have none of it and from 1950s on till late 1990s, there were multiple conflicts it was engaged in against Afghanistan. On occasions things went so dire that ambassadors were recalled and once even diplomatic ties were severed.
In order to weaken Afghanistan, Pakistan sponsored a militant group across the border in the 70s: It was the birth of Taliban. This was the time when Pakistan had begun to swoon on its invention of terrorist outfits in the 70s. It had yielded handsome results in Soviet Union’s ouster from Kabul and helped it snuggle up to a gratified Washington. Terrorism was a factory Islamabad spawned as a revenge tool after it lost East Pakistan during the 1971 Indo-Pak war. Taliban owed much of its rise to Pakistan and even assumed power in Afghanistan in the mid-90s.
But then 9/11 happened and Talibans faced the wrath of the United States. Pakistan bended backwards to please its masters in the United States, even offering them their air-bases to attack Talibans. It was an existential threat to Talibans who to this day have not forgiven Pakistan for their betrayal.
As luck would’ve it, Talibans won the war of attrition against the United States and after two decades was back in power in Kabul in 2021. It was payback time on Pakistan and TTP were armed to the teeth in a bid to inflict a million cuts on Islamabad.
One thing led to another: Pakistan have been deporting Afghani refugees in tens of thousands to the other side of border. It has periodically air-raided the Afghan territory, dropping bombs with gay abandon. It has stopped land-route of trade from Kabul into its north-western part which is crippling to the Kabul government.
Ironically this high-handedness of Pakistan hasn’t gone down well with its own citizens in north-western provinces. Afghan trade is their lifeline. They can’t compete with better industries of the rest of Pakistan and it has led to various regional political outfits, including Imran Khan’s PTI, oppose own Pakistan’s armed action against Afghanistan.
The India Factor
There is an international dimension to this conflict too. Talibans have begun warming up to India. Pakistan doesn’t like a wee-bit. It has all along adopted a big brother’s posture vis-a-vis Afghanistan. Recently while Taliban regime’s foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaqi was visiting India, Pakistan launched a ferocious military attack against Afghanistan to register its disapproval.
That Muttaqi was welcomed in Deoband seminary in India caused a massive heartburn in Pakistan. Deoband seminary is seen as intellectual and ideological heritage of their existence by both neighbours. It allows them to present themselves as faith keepers of orthodox, traditional Islam. Muttaqi, by visiting Deoband seminary, was seen as acquiring legitimacy much to Pakistan’s annoyance.
The recent bloody exchanges between the two is making matters worse. Pakistan might have a better military but its wishful to think it could subdue Taliban in Afghanistan. Taliban also have a trump card in Kabul River which supplies 21 billion cubic meters of water annually to Pakistan, practically a lifeline to its water-scarce northwestern region.
Pakistan’s own economy is in terrible shape. It’s struggling to feed its 255 million people; poverty is worsening and economy is deflating. It can’t withstand a protracted war against Afghanistan. Beijing too won’t like a destabilised Afghanistan. It has warmed up to Talibans immensely these days. It doesn’t wish to appear party to Pakistan’s punitive action which would push Taliban further into India’s arms.
Hillary Clinton had once said it was foolish to believe that the snakes in your box would only bite the neighbours. Pakistan created Taliban which is now its own nemesis. Much to its chagrin, it didn’t find any nation supporting its recent actions against Afghanistan.
To rub salt in its wounds, Muttaqi was firing warnings at Pakistan from Indian soil on his recent visit. Afghanistan’s seaborne trade is largely conducted through Chabahar port in Iran in which India has invested heavily. Taliban is intent on building relationships with other countries and refuses to be strait-jacketed with Pakistan.
It could only bring smiles in New Delhi.
