The world is agog with dread that Donald Trump after all would attack Iran soon.
The previous imminent moment was just a fortnight ago when thousands of lives were lost in Iran due to deadly protests.
Trump had addressed the protestors that “help is on its way” and that the United States was “locked and loaded” to hit the regime in Iran.
But then nothing came out of it.
Trump later told the world that he “convinced himself” not to attack Iran—and that’s because the “execution” of protestors had stopped.
“You had yesterday (on January 14, 2026) scheduled over 800 hangings. They didn’t hang anyone. They cancelled the hangings. This had a big impact (on his decision to not go ahead with strikes),” said Trump.
Now we hear of an “armada” — in Trump’s words — sailing towards Iran.
This armada is USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group heading towards Iran (see image below) “just in case,” Trump has said.
This is a massive naval hardware, some 132,000 tons— heading towards Iran.
It’s not only the nuclear-powered Lincoln air-carrier but there is also three-guided missile destroyers and five squadrons of strike fighters with a max capacity of 90 aircrafts.
Again, I think, Trump would not attack Iran.
Thrice, during his two terms separated by one of Joe Biden, Trump had an opportunity to launch a war against Iran but skirted on all three occasions.
First Near-War
First was in 2019 when the Iranians had downed an American Global Hawk surveillance drone but Trump didn’t retaliate which had the British foaming in their mouth.
A little background to it is necessary.
After the Iranians had downed the US drone on June 20, 2019, Trump reportedly backed down from a retaliatory attack because it risked killing 150 Iranians.
The UK ambassador to Washington, Kim Darroch had then termed Trump as “inept” and criticized his policy on Iran as “chaotic.”
Darroch had also suggested that Trump would be “open to outside influence if pitched right.”
(This was revealed after a series of cables Darroch sent to British foreign office were leaked to media)
Second Near-War
This came when on June 22, 2025, the United States “attacked” three nuclear facilities in Iran as part of the brief Israel-Iran war; followed by a pre-announced Iranian attack on the US airbase in Qatar in response to which Trump said “thank you” to Tehran.
The entire affair smacked off “fake pre-arranged attacks” by both the United States and Iran to rein-in hardliners in their own ranks.
In the case of United States, it were the war-mongers in Washington, Europe and Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel who had to be skirted away from the path of total war.
Third Near-War
This of course refers to recent regrettable deaths during the protests in Iran when Trump promised the agitators that the “help is on the way,” but then stopped short of carrying out his threat.
And as Trump was to say later, he “convinced himself” not to attack Iran as executions had subsided.
Now is the latest “armada” threat headed from the Pacific to Middle East, approaching Iran’s coast.
All three previous near-war moments and the present move convey two definite optics:
One, there are forces, the “outside influence” which Darroch referred to in his cables, who are confident they could force Trump’s hands on Iran.
Two, Trump doesn’t want to attack Iran.
Trump’s reasons are not difficult to fathom:
What is he going to achieve by bombing Tehran? Nothing.
The best-case scenario for Trump could be that there is a regime change in Iran.
A regime change in Iran would amount to little. The US could appoint a pawn, or a Shah, to run Iran but subduing nearly 100 million proud people is out of question.
But the downside is there are 60 US bases and 22,000 US soldiers in the Middle East which are within reach of Tehran’s deadly attacks.
It surely would gut Trump’s presidency and abort all the plans he has undertaken to Make America Great Again.
Not to forget, Russia and China won’t be mere bystanders in case Iran is attacked.
And then what happens to “Board of Peace” which Trump has launched with such fanfare?
How does he reconcile the two opposites where he is a beacon of peace on one hand and yet bombing an independent sovereign nation on the other?
The obvious conclusion to draw is that Trump is unwilling to be a pawn in the war games of Israel, or for that matter, British and other European elites.
In the year of mid-term elections, he has a lot to lose if the United States was to suffer casualties, either of men or its air bases.
It would again be return to that cabal, that Deep State, which has been squeezing America out of life for over half a century.
So my educated guess is that the Lincoln aircraft carrier moving to Persian Gulf is Trump’s way of quietening the barking dogs who surround him and are itching for a war against Iran.
And like on previous three occasions, either the attack against Iran won’t materialize or there would be some “fake strikes” between the two.
