Most don’t get why Donald Trump is shooting off tariffs left, right and centre.
What does he gain by if inflation is driven up, his own citizens suffer and the rest of the world looks for alternative to the United States?
This is MAGA or is it Make America Grumpy Again?
What happens to the cherished free-trade ideology of the United States replaced by protectionist measures?
The answers could be pretty basic but people miss wood for tree.
For instance, Trump says the measures against Mexico is because they inflate the illegal immigrants to his country; and that fentanyl which comes across from borders costs tens of thousands of American lives.
But if Mexico is sending millions of its immigrants into the US, why the United States is not able to protect its’ own side of border?
If fentanyl is costing tens of thousands of lives, and China is accused of rerouting its stuff through Mexico and China, how come this drug is not an issue with the Chinese people?
If China, larger than the United States and four-times its population, could protect its borders and stop the ill-effect of fentanyl on its people, why can’t Trump look to do the same?
How could one ignore one’s own laxity in regulation and border control and put the blame on others?
And how come Trump is different from Joe Biden for he is following the same tariff measures against Beijing which, truth to tell, was the cornerstone of Trump’s first presidency?
Look at his bullying of Panama and Greenland; how he has coerced Colombia to fall in line and is now threatening South Africa and European Union for more of the same.
Yet a look at the world map could explain a lot of these things.
These are all maritime chokepoints for China, a superpower which the United States has sworn to destroy.
Now the United States is in no position to engage in a head-to-head clash with China.
But since an economy as large as China relies on its maritime trade, and since it’s financially woven into the Western economy, the best way to hurt it is to snap its trading routes.
That’s why you have the United States funding Balochistan massively to use them against Pakistan and hurt China’s Gwadar access for maritime trade.
That’s why the United States has such important chokepoints in Japan, South Korea, Philippines and now Bangladesh to leverage against Beijing.
And that’s why trade sanctions against India are due anyway unless it compromises its strategic autonomy and cooperates with Washington in being a factor on China’s sea lanes when, and not if, required.
Writes my dear friend, well-known geopolitical expert Syed Zubair Ahmed on India’s options to avoid tariff backlash: “India could also leverage its Indo-Pacific importance, remind Washington that it remains a crucial counterweight to China and—let’s be honest—make a few concessions.”
And that I guess Modi would convey to Trump when he visits White House in a few weeks’ time.
The United States, irrespective of who is the president, has one aspect of its foreign policy cast in stone:: Curb and halt China’s growing might if the US is not to slip into a terminal decline.
This is Wolfowitz Doctrine since 1992 which outlines ways to take pre-emptive actions against nations that threaten to rise to be a superpower.
It’s a common knowledge within the US policy makers that if China can’t be stopped by 2030, the game is as good as lost for the Washington.
It’s a misconception that Russia is the biggest concern for the United States.
The Trump administration gives a damn to what happens in Ukraine.
It’s a quagmire Trump wants to get out of it as quickly as possible irrespective of what happens to its allies in the European Union or for that matter NATO.
China it is which is America’s nightmare.
China is aware of it: Hence the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is its priority for trade through land as it can foresee the maritime chokepoints flaring up in near future.
The US on its part is banking on proxies such as Balochistan, Myanmar and puppets in Middle East so that not just maritime but even road connectivity for China doesn’t come to fruition.
Those caught up in this disturbing binary that Trump’s measures mean more misery for the US citizens while he screams MAGA miss the larger point.
Increased tariffs are a sweet-sell to citizens as a measure to beef up America’s domestic industries and force foreign competitors’ hands in shifting their manufacturing base to the United States.
The selling point is: It would bring more jobs and thus more wages to the Americans in due course.
But people are farthest from the mind of Trump even though it’s the populism which has got him thus far.
He has risen to this position on the back of oligarchs and is no better than their manager who would rearrange world’s trade for the pockets of these handful elites.
These tariff wars are also meant to win people’s affection since both Ukraine and Israel are un-salvageable.
Trump is merely picking up the low-hanging fruits.
India’s Worry
Still, from India’s trade point of view, which are the industries facing this spectre of sword hanging over their heads?
Amongst the largest trade deficits the United States has vis-a-vis the rest of the world, India accounts for the ninth position.
In terms of percentage, India has a 3.2% trade surplus against the United States, a profit of $36. 8 billion as per 2023-2024 figures.
The largest trade surplus of course comes to China which enjoys $317 billion advantage or 30% of all trade deficits which show up in the US’ books.
The second is Mexico (19% and $200 billion surplus) and third is Canada (14.5% and $153 billion surplus).
India’s pharmaceuticals (21.9%), gems and jewellery (9.6%), shrimp and pawn (6.6%) have the highest share in India’s exports to the United States.
They could be roiled which is bad but from a geopolitical point of view, Trump’s tariff card in essence is a measure to control the chokepoints of China’s maritime trade.
The rest are mere gambits.
