What would now happen of Venezuela?
The same what happened to Syria after Bashar al Assad was removed.
Or of Iraq after Saddam Hussain was ejected.
Or of Libya after Muammar Gaddafi was sodomized and killed.
Or of Vietnam once Diem was assasinated.
Or of Panama once Noriega met his unfortunate fate.
Wasn’t this coming to a narco–terrorist that Nicolas Maduro is ?
Juan Orlandon Hernandez, ex-president of Honduras was sentenced to 45 years of jail by a US court for smuggling 400 tonnes of cocaine to the exceptional country. Yet he was granted presidential pardon by Donald Trump last month.
So is Ahmed al Sharaa, who presently ruins (not runs) Syria, and once was commander of Al-Qaeda on whom the US federal department had put a reward of $10 million dollars but now sips tea with Donald Trump in the White House.
But didn’t the US pre–empt a threat from Venezuela?
Well, only a few hours before he was abducted (your newspaper would tell you captured as if some brigand), Maduro was pleading the United States for a deal.
And if the issue is of illegal immigrants, it’s your men on borders who deserved be sacked not another president kidnapped.
Why Donald Trump did what he did?
Multiple reasons:
- World runs on oil and it’s sold in US dollars;
- If the US controls world’s oil, the dollar retains its supremacy;
- US treasury bonds remain buoyant. Whatever dollars US gives by way of exports to the rest of the world, returns to Washington by way of these bonds;
- If oil and dollar are delinked or if it’s traded in other currencies, US dollars won’t sell for a penny since the nation is in debt to the tune of over 34 trillion dollars;
- US wishes to secure its Western hemisphere so that rivals stay at the oceans’ distance;
- US grabs imporant rare-earths and lithiums which Latin America has;
- US gets across the message that anyone who dares not submit would be ejected.
What happens to Iran now?
Imminent attack – at most 2-3 months.
US was holding off on Iran for the fear that if Tehran closes down Strait of Hormuz, much of world’s trade, not just in oil, would be disrupted.
Now with Venezuela arguably secured, Iran could be attacked without fear of disruption of world trade in case Tehran shuts down Strait of Hormuz.
What of International Law now?
Defunct.
It’s free for all — though much of the world, unlike the West, still sticks to the UN Charter.
It matters little though for even if the rest of world agrees on an issue and it runs foul of the West, the US could always veto it.
The US is like a bull in a china shop and nobody is safe.
What are the options for emerging multipolar world?
Russia, China and to a lesser degree India are the leading figures of this movement.
China is as good or even better than United States in terms of economy.
Russia is as good rather even better than the United States militarily.
But none of them have 800 military bases which the US has around every nook and corner of the world.
Russia and China can defend themselves but can’t project powers other than in their immediate neighbourhood.
What is the way out?
Sooner than later, the rest of the world would have to start coming together militarily.
It might be or might not be defense pacts but the US is now an unhinged gangster, a cat in a pigeon cage, who would get all doves in due course. The only pushback feasible is to meet force with force. Diplomacy and call to international law are currencies which no longer work with this rampant bully.
This recourse to international decorum has made Putin slog for four years and still not take out Zelensky what Trump has done so with Maduro in 24 hours.
How should one look at the immediate future?
That this year is going to be one of wars — with the prayer on lips it doesn’t turn nuclear.
The seeming divergence of the US and EU would disappear and they would again be joined at the hips.
It doesn’t mean any relief for Zelensky though as Russia would now get its velvet gloves off and go brutal against Ukraine.
The pace would quicken for the rest of the world to do bilateral trade in own currencies if not floating an alternative one to Dollar or Euro.
Expect China to dump its US dollar trade bonds or at the very least, not invest further in a big way in the US market.
What’s the picture for India?
Much of India’s energy would go in battling Pakistan and Bangladesh who are being fused as one by the Jihadi forces.
India’s NorthEast would face significant pressure which could spill to the mainland in the form of communal riots.
That is, the playbook is Hindus being hacked in Bangladesh; leading to retaliatory attacks against Muslims in India which the destabilising forces hope, could spread to the rest of the country and bring it to a shuddering halt.
That is how Pakistan was formed and that’s how another Pakistan within India is being dreamt of.
Who is the puppeteer? You guessed it right: The United States.
