Could Donald Trump turn on China against Russia?
All kind of things are happening with Trump’s advent in January so who is to say: What Rubbish!
After all, there is a real possibility that Denmark could cede Greenland to the United States; Colombia refuses then agrees to take back illegal immigrants and Benjamin Netanyahu of all people signed up on Ceasefire with Hamas.
Away from the spotlight, the BRICS Bank and SCO which are led by China have enforced the US sanctions against Russia!
A Chinese company is no longer a partner in Russia’s Arctic LNG2 mega project, according to Andrew Korybko.
Not to miss, Ukraine receives a part of its drones supply from a few Chinese companies.
And a Russia-India jointly produced BrahMos supersonic missiles are being shipped to the Philippines which sings Washington’s tune in South China Sea.
Much of it of course happened much before Trump emerged.
However, no less than the Russian foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov has admitted: China is much more dependent on the West than Russia ever was. The size of its economy, volume of its trade relations with the US and the West, and its banking system which is very deeply tied to global financial markets, is the reason.
So who is to rule out if Trump was to offer the Taiwan-bait to China: That we pull back from the island as you do from Russia?
Baiting Russia On Oil Revenue
The thinking is without the energy revenue, Russia would be crippled.
This could be the bargaining position Trump wants to be in with Russia before initiating any peace deal on the Ukraine War.
And if a Ukraine peace-deal happens, China and Russia could carry on with their energy pow-wow while the US and NATO would have their face-saving moment.
And Trump would be a superstar!
That Trump has fuel-trade on mind to bring Russia on to the negotiating table is pretty much evident now.
Trump has asked Saudi Arabia to flood the global market with oil: It would bring down the fuel prices and hurt the revenue which he believes sustains Russia.
Trump arguably believes in the myth that the Soviet Union collapsed because Saudis had flooded the global market with cheap oil in the 1980s: It crippled the Soviet economy ultimately leading to its collapse.
Much of it of course is myth.
Saudis dropped down on oil prices in the 1980s because the preceding decades of 1960s and 1970s had seen the oil prices soaring.
The rising oil prices had made Saudi Arabia’s competitors gain a fair pie of market share hurting Riyadh’s trade.
So Trump needs to get rid of this myth – as he needs to understand that energy is not the backbone of Russia’s economy.
Saudis – The Energy Question
Energy constitutes only 10 per cent of Russia’s GDP. It’s the non-energy sectors in Russia which is booming and bringing in more and more tax revenues.
Further, Russia produces its energy at a very low cost. It could always lower its prices and still sing a song.
It also has the option to lower the price of ruble to offset the inconvenience.
It is Saudi Arabia which is primarily reliant on its energy sale, constituting 40% of its GDP and 75% of its fiscal revenue.
So why would Saudis bring down the oil prices and hurt its own economy which is presently being over-stretched due to a few mega projects underworks?
And why would Saudis annoy Russia with which it has begun to have excellent relations of late?
Russia already has a comprehensive strategic partnership signed with Iran which thus far, and always would, keep Saudi Arabia wary.
Trump has boasted that Saudis are willing to invest 600 billion dollars in the American economy and he has asked them to round it up to one trillion dollars – as if it’s a small change.
But if Trump wants Saudis to spare a trillion dollars they could only do so if they have more and not less revenue!
Lowering oil prices run contrary to the logic.
And what about the fuel and shale-oil producers in the United States who would be badly singed if the energy prices drop?
And why would China sacrifice Russia for Taiwan which anyway would prove to be as big a blackhole for the United States as Ukraine presently is?
Threat Of Secondary Sanctions
Trump has further threatened secondary sanctions in a bid that insurers’ are desisted from carrying Russian oil to China.
Or for that matter, to India.
Such a measure can’t kick in before March and by then, as sources in India have suggested, they would have a wider pool of insurers to make sure the energy keeps flowing uninterrupted.
The truth of the matter is: If there is a demand there would always be a supply and the two parties would find a way to make it happen.
If after three years, the US and West haven’t understood that Sanctions are not working against Russia then God help them!
Trump Wants More Not Less Wars
Trump in his first tenure had faced a hostile media. So far, media has been kind to him and he is liking it.
Thus he is more bombastic than ever and has come out with guns blazing.
He has said with a flourish that Russia’s economy is crippled; it has lost a million men in the Ukraine War, and that Vladimir Putin is in a mess.
Putin is not in a mess: His standing amongst his own people continues to soar.
And nobody, not even Ukrainians believe that Russia’s economy is crippled and that it has lost a million men in the Ukraine War.
Russians meanwhile is watching this bumbling man, in love with his own voice, making a spectacle of himself.
That this man christened Donald Trump is desperate for a peace deal with Russia and not the other way around.
Yet he doesn’t know how he could have a face-saving deal with Russia and is thrashing around like a castrated giant would in impotent fury.
It’s just his one week in the White House and we already see his claim of ending wars was as phoney as the man himself is.
He is not here to end wars but to perpetuate it.
Be it is his own allies, his weak neighbours or his perceived enemies, Trump is threatening one and all.
And truth to tell, he has no option either.
He is no visionary, doesn’t have a future in mind for America – only an overwhelming concern on how to navigate his next four years.
If he was serious about Making America Great Again (MAGA), he ought to be looking inwards rather than threatening the entire world.
Like all US presidents in recent past, Trump is no better than a manager of oligarchs, of military-industrial complex behemoths, whose chief interest is in profit and not in the United States.
And that profit ensues from wars.
It’s a lesson they learnt from World War II which made US the superpower it presently is and lifted it out of the depths of 1929- and later 1937—Great Economic Depression.
But we are nearly 100 years down the road. Colonies then are now growing nations.
China is not China of 1920s, and neither is India or Russia with its Bolshevik experiment.
Truth to tell, Trump would be no less a disaster for world—and America—than Joe Biden ever was.
Brace yourself.
