India’s war with Pakistan lasted for four days. After the first few hours, India was put on a large-scale civil-defense mock drill, simulating war scenarios and testing emergency response procedures across 244 districts. Imagine if the war had gone on for four years!
Now try to be in an Ukrainian or Russian shoe. Ukraine is viewed as heroic who haven’t collapsed; Russia not so much in their tardy progress. But what if Russians are doing this on purpose?
Modern warfare has two distinct prisms: One is of West’s which is all “shock and awe” but not so much when the war drags on beyond a few months – we all know what happened in Vietnam, Afghanistan and to an extent in Iraq. Second prism is of Russia which opts for attritional war where emphasis is not on capturing terrain but degrading the enemy till it runs out of weapons, men and resolve. i.e, you reproduce more, you lose lesser than your enemy. You are not looking for decisive battles. Such wars are won by economies — and not armies.
Broadly, an attritional war revolves around defence. West’s approach, on the other hand is of offense.
Attritional wars are all about numbers. It was numbers which made the Soviet army prevail over Germany in the World War II. Its strategy since has been to build up mass reserves. Draft for a year is compulsory at 18 years. Stress is on cheap weapons and munitions which are easy to produce and easy to train. Replacement of men and matter is always rapid.
Prisms of Attritional War
Russia approaches an attritional war in two distinct phases. The first phase is all about losing lesser than your enemy while building up combat power in your rear. In this phase little shifts on the ground. Stress is on fortifications and camouflage. These are holding actions, allowing time to mobilize resources and train the new army —while you deplete the enemy’s resources faster than yours.
Once this phase is successful, the second phase rolls out. This looks to overwhelm the enemy at multiple points with sporadic attacks. This stretches the depleted enemy reserves until the front collapses. You don’t try to do a concentrated attack. For if you do, the enemy can coalesce his resources at a single location. At no stage, the safety bubble of first phase ought to be compromised. For that is the fulcrum of an attritional war.
Once both phases tick the boxes, you go for your strategic goal with blinding speed. Timing is of essence. Russia hasn’t forgotten the lessons of World War I. During the Brusilov Offensive of 1916, Russia was able to collapse the Austro-Hungarian army. It was attritional and a tactical win. But it lost out on its strategic objective. Too much resources were wasted on a lesser Austro-Hungarian piece while the “King” Germany was unscathed.
Germany was to repeat a similar mistake in the next World War. It was obsessed with Stalingrad in 1942 and not on the strategic objective of beating the Soviet Union. It burnt itself up in the quest for Stalingrad.
Come to think of it, both the World Wars were attritional wars. So was the Spanish Civil War. In the first World War, the Allies offensive in 1918 was timed to perfection. They attacked along a broad front till Germany began to run out of resources. Once its retreat began, it was impossible to stop.
Modern Warfare
It’s a totally new game in the town. There are too many types of electronic warfare (EW), various layers of air defences, five types of artillery, countless variety in air power, naval might, traditional infantry and drones which are not just for strike but also for reconnaissance, etc. How far has it come from the times of Second World War where horses were still being used.
The complexities involved in modern warfare are mind-boggling. Let’s say a 45-soldier strong platoon is about to attack They straightaway need EW at three layers: one to jam enemy drones, two to jam enemy communications and three to jam space navigation systems which could use precision guided munitions. You then need counter-battery radars to deny enemy artillery. Sapper engineers would need to clear minefields. Overhead drones must provide fire support if needed. Your artillery not only should thwart the front but also the rear of enemy. All this to support just 45 men! If any piece in this maze malfunctions, we have 45 martyrs on hand. Just multiply this one formation with scores others and you have an idea of complexity in operations and its integration required in our times.
This integration needs to happen at multiple levels. And they overlap each other in real-time. Preserving experience is thus the key in an attritional warfare. Even semi-trained officers are no good. It takes years to train a good officer. You could have your checklist and mandatory procedures but in dynamic operations, they are more likely to fail. A platoon’s cohesion is as good as the centralized resources at the backend.
That Russia is opting for an attritional war was apparent in 2022 itself. It quickly gave up on Kiev, Kharkiv and Kherson to preserve its resources. It chose to give up land to save its experienced soldiers. It was a public relations nightmare but they never lost sight of their strategic goals.
Ukraine/NATO also needs high-end troops for its high-end weapons. They don’t happen overnight. And when the enemy is resorting to attritional war, the loss of this skill isn’t easily replaced. They take big time to train.
So this Ukraine War isn’t going to end anytime soon.
Historically, peace negotiations last years as was witnessed in Korean and Vietnam Wars.
