What do you think would happen to president Donald Trump’s Ukraine peace plan on November 27? Nothing.
Vladimir Zelensky would dither on multiple issues; his European handlers would bristle in anger and stick to their come-what-may stance; and disgraceful media would swoon on this fake fortitude.
It’s not to say the Ukraine War would finish any better for these war-mongers. It would only be worse: With the United States washing its hands off, neither Zelensky nor the EU, nor for that matter NATO are in any position to stall Russia’s advance on frontlines. All they are left with is two choices: Either swallow this humiliation — they were not even consulted on this peace plan by Trump — or six months later, suffer even worse calamity. By then Russia would have doubled its territorial gains and who knows even Odessa could be gone.
The writing is on the wall. Vladimir Zelensky and his European paymasters have hit the dead end. The country which schemed this entire disaster, the United States, has turned a referee from being the original player of this catastrophe.
After multiple initiatives on trying to end the Ukraine conflict, the US president Donald Trump has finally said enough is enough: Zelensky must adhere to the 28-point peace plan he has floated. No more the spoilers — Zelensky and his European sponsors — making a beeline to White House and forcing Trump to retrace his steps.
There is no new-found love for Vladimir Putin in Washington. Russia presently is a gale force in the field to which the US and European Union have no answer. The only two options are to give way or be blown away. Sending troops is out of question; weapon depots have run dry and above all, where is the money? All the Europeans are eyeing is to illegally gulp down the 300 billion dollars of frozen Russian assets and bankroll the Ukrainians. This move, if at all it comes to pass, would make it free-for-all. All bets would be off; International law, already on ventilator, would be dead the very next instant.
Trump came to power with a promise to end the Ukraine War. He can’t be seen among his voters’ base as inept. He rightly sees no point in pumping oxygen into the dead cause of Ukraine. Either plug on and end up being a loser. Or extricate oneself and be viewed in history as peacemaker.
Zelensky and his European Union handlers are different. Just a few hours before Trump’s peace plan was known, Zelensky was shopping 100 Rafale jets in France for $10 billion. Another $30 billion was being kept aside for fighter planes from Sweden.
Zelensky of course has none of this money. But like always he had no reason to doubt his bosses. The EU chief Von der Leyen was promising another €137 billion to backstop his latest adventure: € 83.4 billion for arms and €55.2 billion for his economy over the next two years. Another round of austerity and looting European taxpayers’ money, if not printing Euros or embezzling Russian assets, is her calculation for this figure.
Now if Zelensky and EU can’t keep the US in their corner, it means they are on their own – which amounts to nothing. Zelensky needs US intelligence for whatever pretence he could keep of Ukrainian forces being in the game. EU can’t hope for NATO’s cover without the United States. Even contemplating sending troops or scratching the bottom of their empty treasury would bring citizens to their bedrooms.
Both Zelensky and EU can’t afford for war to end this way. They have invested endlessly in wanting to bring Russia to its knees. Never the road to diplomacy was explored. A defeat would be catastrophic for their own future and that’s what they dread. The war mongering has sustained them for last few years. Now it would be domestic audience and domestic issues to contend with — a task for which they are badly equipped. Masses are beginning to view them for what they are: scamsters. Europe is a laggard in terms of technology, industry, growth or even militarily. The consequences would be unavoidable in the aftermath of war.
It would be a grave blow to the European Union. At the moment, it’s able to carry along 27 European nations through a mix of aids, free movement across borders and pure high-handedness. After Ukraine’s inevitable defeat, bickering would fester and the EU elites won’t be feared. Their diktats, election manipulation as recently seen in Romania, won’t work. Militarily it would cease being a factor. It’s economy is in tatters. Dissent would grow. Nations would trust their future in themselves—not in EU. It would have a domino effect. Rarely in history has West’s hegemony faced such a bleak future.
How Russia is viewing this spectacle of headless chickens? Putin is winning so he has no reason to abandon the main goal of this Special Military Operation (SMO): (a) Ukraine must stay out of NATO; (b) Ukraine must concede the four oblasts which have opted for Russia; and (c) and Ukraine’s constitution must not discriminate against Russian speakers.
Putin won’t mind any deal as long as these objectives are fulfilled. If the TransAtlantic alliance is fractured so much the better. It would give the emerging multipolar order, in which Russia is a major stakeholder, a great impetus.
