Israel and Hamas could have a ceasefire before the ink on this piece dries up.
It would be monumental given how most of humanity has grieved over Israel’s genocide in Gaza in response to a single day’s action by Hamas on October 7, 2023.
Hamas took some 251 Israeli hostages as a bargaining chip in hope of thousands of jailed Palestinians would be freed, a fair bit of whom are women and children.
But instead of negotiating for hostages and prisoners’ swap, Israel unleashed a hell on Gaza which for its barbarity, savagery and cruelty has no parallel since World War II.
Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu had promised to wipe out Hamas within two weeks but after 468 days or 16 months, Tel Aviv would be forced to seek a pause from its adversary who only this week ambushed 25 Israeli soldiers in Rafah.
In Israel, this approaching ceasefire is being termed a Surrender Deal.
Israel didn’t seek it, much less Hamas forced upon it. This was Donald Trump bringing Netanyahu to heel before he assumes the US presidency on the 20th of this month.
Steve Witkoff, a Jewish real-estate developer who is Trump’s designated envoy for the Middle East (see image above), in a single sit-down forced Netanyahu’s hands in a rather humiliating manner last Saturday.
Witkoff called up Netanyahu’s office for a meeting on Saturday and was told the prime minister doesn’t meet guests on Sabbath day. I am not a Sabbath guy is what Witkoff is said to have conveyed and forced Netanyahu to present himself.
It’s a stark reminder to those who swoon over Israel’s propensity to assassinate and bomb civilians without a care, unhindered and unhinged: It could deny humanitarian aid and ban even a UN agency. It could defy International Court of Justice (ICJ). But in essence Israel is nothing without the US support of funds and arms which for now, with the change of occupant in the White House, appear fun-over for Tel Aviv.
Humiliatiing Terms
The terms of the proposed ceasefire are no less humiliating for Zionists.
During its first phase of 42 days, Israel would release 30 Palestinians for each Israeli citizen freed; 50 Palestinians, including those serving life sentence, for each female soldier released; in exchange for bodies handed over by the Hamas, Israel would free all Palestinian women and children held in captivity since October 7, 2023.
Under ceasefire, humanitarian aid reduced to a trickle, would flow in on hundreds of trucks. No more denying of food, medicine, fuel and other supplies to tragic Palestinians. Israel would also have to let the UNRWA in, whom they had banned, for it’s this agency which is a major distributor of aid in Gaza.
On the matter of land and civilians, Israel would have to abandon the Netzarim Corridor by the 22nd day of the ceasefire. This is massive for as you could see in the map below, it cuts Gaza into northern and southern part.
Now over a million Palestinians, pushed into southern Gaza, could return to emptied north Gaza. Israel is reluctant for it sees the return of Hamas in north Gaza with all its weaponry and supplies which it had laboured largely to destroy in last 16 months. Palestinians on foot could cross over to north Gaza without any checks. Those on vehicles would be checked —by Egyptian and Qatari facilitators and not Israeli outposts!
Worse for Israel would follow in the 2nd phase of the ceasefire which would begin by the 16th day of the first phase. Israel would have to vacate the Philadelphi Corridor (see image above) which is nine miles long and 100 metre wide and runs across the border with Egypt and includes Rafah. This is the Corridor which facilitates countless tunnels from which supplies to Hamas happen through Yemen, Sudan, Egypt etc. Netanyahu terms Philadelphi Corridor a matter of life-and-death for Israel. But if the second phase goes through, that’s what Israel would have to give up.
If first phase of ceasefire goes through its 42 days, and the second phase is agreed upon and completed in its due course, whatever that date might be, it would come to the third phase which is the easiest bit: 3-5 years of Gaza’s reconstruction in exchange of bodies of remaining hostages. Yet it’s the second phase which would take some agreeing.
In the second phase, Hamas would have to release all remaining hostages. Israel, in return—hold your breath—would have to completely get out of Gaza! Israel on its part wants a guarantee that Hamas would no longer run Gaza and would not rearm. Hamas is said to be okay with it as long as it has a say in the future government. Hamas obviously can’t allow the puppet Palestinian Authority of West Bank to take over Gaza and leave Israel de facto in charge.
This is the moment to stand on your feet and applaud Hamas, the Palestinian resistance and their unshakeable will. They suffered death and a life worse than death without the means which sustain it. Air which was filled with the toxicity of bombs, hospitals which vanished, food which wasn’t there on the table, and water which came with blood and stink of carcasses. Mothers saw their children blow up in front of their eyes, crawling under rubble; eating soil for food and shivering cloth-less in the bitter winter of its land.
Israel’s Next Move
Yet neither the Palestinians nor most of humanity should believe the hell is over till it is over.
Israel has been left to lick its wounds; If ceasefire happens, Benjamin Netanyahu would be put up on stake literally by extreme right elements in his country. Israel of course could spurn Donald Trump and continue what it’s been doing for 16 months. But without the US aid and arms, this depravity won’t last a month.
The United States and Donald Trump has its own reasons. Syria is slipping under Turkey; Houthis in Yemen are rampant and who knows before long the simmering discontent of Arab masses could take down the Gulf monarchies which do so much for the US influence in the region and is their springboard for Africa. It’s plain suicidal to play the game of Netanyahu and unleash the capability of Iran and others which would expose the frailty of Washington and Tel Aviv.
Thus it’s better to hold horses, pull your feet in, and regroup in the hope the enemies would be lulled into complacency. War would no longer work for Israel and the United States in the region. Diplomacy could. But what if Turkey pushes out Israel from Syria nevertheless? And what if Houthis, Hezbollahs and the rest of Axis of Resistance are unrelenting ? After all, there is carnage of tens of thousands to avenge for.
For now, Israel has suffered a loss of face. It clearly didn’t reckon its enemies would be this resourceful, resilient and ideologically aligned. It thought the United States would be by its side till death do them part.
It now knows better. Hopefully.
